Today is very interesting, the deluge of rain yesterday in the South east turned Ascot into a quagmire, with today’s sun on it this morning we could be looking at tacky ground, if it had rained again I would be more confident of backing genuine soft ground horses but whatever wins is going to have to stay the distance and that could make Golden Horn in the King George vulnerable. Golden Horn could be good enough to win despite the ground and trip stretching his stamina to the limit and I hope he is but for betting purposes it may be best to side with something else.
Clever Cookie has been backed into single figures but does he have the requisite class?, against second and third rate opposition he has looked very classy and has a decent cruising speed but whether he has the toe for this I am not sure.
My fancy is Eagle Top, ignore his two runs this year, he badly needed his Sandown debut and then got involved in a bumping match with  Postponed behind Snow Sky both of whom re-oppose today. Snow Sky got the run of the race and I am not sure that this ground will suit him and Eagle Top is a son of Pivotal who’s progeny enjoy rain softened ground and is from a family of soft ground lovers, if he is ever to win a big one this could be his day.
I cannot look beyond Heavens Guest in the 3.15, he loves Ascot and loves soft ground and I backed him at 16’s earlier this week, the 12/1 still available is still good value and Jack Garrity is well worth his 3lb claim, in these big handicaps it is hard to know which side of the course is more favourable especially when the weather and ground are unpredictable so it may be worth a saver on Lincoln, he has course form should like the ground and has Richard Hughes up.
In the 2.40 it could be worth siding with Azraff, after not staying the extra 2 furlongs he ran well over a mile last time finishing second with the rest well beat, he has form on soft and could defy top weight.
At York the Sky Bet Dash (3.30) lost a lot of its lustre with several 5 day drop outs, only Tanzeel has the profile of a group horse undercover so I will stick with Willbeme who has been running well in the most competitive 5 furlong handicaps this year and could appreciate the extra furlong today.
Summary
3.30 York – Willbeme – 0.5pts EW at 14/1
2.40 Ascot – Azraff – 0.5pts EW at 7/1
3.15 Ascot – Heavens Guest – 1pt EW at 12/1
3.15 Ascot – Lincoln – 0.5pts EW at 16/1
2.40 Ascot – Eagle Top – 0.5pts EW at 15/2
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