Buck the Trend

I am back after a about a month off due to weddings and my wife telling me I was spending too much time on here!!!

What did I miss? Royal Ascot? The Derby? 3/4’s of Euro 16?

What have I done? Watched Big Brother 🙂 I am the last viewer standing, more people in there than watching but my money is on Hughie!!

Tomorrow is the racing day where the elite jockeys complain that they cannot be in 5 different places at once and the second and third tier jockeys get a chance to shine.

Up and coming apprentice George Wood takes a handy 7lbs off of seven furlong handicap stalwart Buckstay in the 5.10 at Newmarket and that could be enough to get his head in front. Running on well over an inadequate trip at Ascot last time he is an each way bet to nothing. In the same race have a little on Tanzeel who will love the faster ground and could be fit enough first time this season.

 

The July Cup take Limato or Eastern Impact to take advantage of the drying ground. Limato is a class act and a return to sprinting could see him take this Group 1. Eastern Impact loves the course and comes here fresh. My favourite ever July Cup moment was the great Chief Singer proving as good over six furlongs as he was over a mile and further.

Finally at York take a chance with the king of sprinters Robert Cowell and lump on Outback Traveller. He is making the transition from seven furlong nearly horse to graded sprinter and can take another step up the ladder with this listed success.

 

Summary

5.10 Newmarket – Buckstay – 1pt Ew at 6/1

5.10 Newmarket – Tanzeel – 1pt Ew at 16/1

4.35 Newmarket – Limato – 1pt Win at 6/1

4.35 Newmarket – Eastern Impact – 1pt EW at 33/1

4.50 York – Outback Traveller – 1pt Win at 8/1

 

Stoned Love

A very good week in the land of Racingahoy, Crystal Palace stay up and are a week away from a Cup Final, we have had lots of sun and also the return of The Stone Roses. It feels like 1989 all over again 🙂 Let’s all join hands and make a wall!

As a Palace fan you might be expecting me to go all out for Eagle Top tomorrow at Newbury but although he is clearly the best horse in the race he has disappointed in this type of contest before and I will be giving hi a swerve.

Eagle Top’s trainer John Gosden could have better luck later on with Remarkable. This unexposed colt had the option of the handicap on the same card but has chosen this Listed race and he is clearly held in some regard. Any cut in the ground should not inconvenience this son of Pivotal.

I have been a long term admirer of Kodi Bear ever since he was runner up in Belardo’s Dewhurst stakes a few years ago. Amazingly they lock horns again tomorrow and I feel that Kodi Bear could still have some scope for improvement this year. Whilst Progeny of the sire Kodiac prefer fast ground this one does have form in the soft and can prevail in the big race of the day.

Over at Newmarket Jamie Spencer can silence his doubters with success on Desert Encounter. This improving type will enjoy the galloping Newmarket course. In the next another improver Thikriyaat from the Sir Michael Stoute in form stable can continue his winning run.

 

Summary

3.20 Newbury – Remarkable – 1pt Win at 4/1

3.55 Newbury – Kodi Bear – 1pt Win at 9/2

3.35 Newmarket -Thikriyaat – 2pt Win at 11/10

3.00 Newmarket – Desert Encounter 2pt Win at 13/8

 

Team America (Landofhopeandglory)

Well I am now fully recovered from my disgusting virus and work today was a joy as I was looking out of the window counting the minutes until the weekend starts. Temps in the mid 20’s (degrees of weather not temporary workers not yet ready to celebrate their third decade). As well as that a full day’s racing on both codes on C4.

Tomorrow’s Classic trials at Lingfield are not exactly star studded and may not have a huge bearing on Epsom in a few week’s time but they could provide a double bonanza for Aiden O’Brien. He runs Seventh Heaven in the Oak’s trial and Landofhopeandglory in the colt’s equivalent.

Seventh Heaven looks an improving type who won well last time, she is not certain to appreciate the distance but if staying could have too many gears for the favourite Mountain Bell who won by 10 lengths last time at Windsor, the Windsor form has not worked out.

Landofhopeandglory looked slow last time out at Newmarket over 10 furlongs so the extra two furlongs should suit and a front running ride from Ryan Moore could help him stretch his rivals out and sap any finishing kick from them.

The well fancied Sign of a Victory will be well fancied to continue Nicky Henderson’s good form on the flat and he could be a blot on the handicap but I fancy the improving filly Perestroika who was a big rangy filly last year and may have done well over the winter. Henry Candy is more known for his sprinters but the selection ran very well at last year’s Shergar Cup meeting at this course and has a decent claimer taking 5lb off.

Elite Army looked a superstar two years ago and a few injuries have kept him off the track since apart from a disappointing run at Newbury last season. A gelding operation (Ouch!!) and a break may have done him the world of good and I take him to win a poor Listed race. I wouldn’t back Scotland with my worst enemies money.

It is not often you get decent fast ground this time of the year but that is what we will have at Ascot tomorrow and the big handicap at 4.15. A couple of horses that will love the ground and act on the track are Outback Traveller and topweight Mister Universe (below).

Over at Haydock the Swinton hurdle can go to the unexposed Gwafa. This former decent flat racer will appreciate the faster ground and looked to be progressive before unseating his rider at Aintree.

Summary

3.25 Lingfield – Seventh Heaven – 1pt Win at 3/1

4.00 Lingfield – Landofhopeandglory – 1pt Win at 4/1

2.30 Ascot – Perestroika – 0.5pts EW at 8/1

3.05 Ascot – Elite Army – 1pt Win at 9/2

4.15 Ascot – Mister Universe – 0.5pts EW at 28/1

4.15 Ascot – Outback Traveller – 1pt EW at 10/1

2.15 Haydock – Gwafa – 1pt Win at 6/1

The Quiet Contender

I once went out with a mime artist for six months and people often ask me what we got up to and I have to reply that it was very normal and we mostly enjoyed quiet nights in.

This is a joke (of sorts) to lead us into my selections for the season’s first classic the 2000 Guineas. A race dominated by Air Force Blue who on all known form should prevail and has been favourite for the race since a very impressive Dewhurst victory last Autumn. He is the most likely winner but at the price (4/6) I cannot advise him and also there have been a couple of negatives in the last week.

On the superb Morning Line (not often you can say that) last week where Clare Balding visited Ballydoyle Aiden O’Brien vocalised his fears of Air Force Blue having too much speed and he had doubts of him staying the trip and then this week the horse has been declared with a tongue strap which could indicate some sort of breathing issue.

All being equal he should win but there is some each way value further down the field. Last year’s Racing Post Trophy winner Marcel (see what I did?) is available at 11/1. He did not get the credit he deserved for that victory as the favourite Foundation found trouble in running. However the form is decent with the second winning a group race after and he travelled very smoothly throughout the contest. He has reportedly done well over the Winter and will definitely stay and enjoy the slightly softened ground and the uphill finish.

The other one to take on the favourite is the only horse to have lowered his colours on course and that is Buratino. He defeated the favourite at Royal Ascot but subsequently that defeat was revenged at the Curragh later in the year. A slight doubt due to running style about the mile trip but his pedigree suggest he should be capable of staying the mile. His form ties him in with the very best of his generation and he should be there or thereabouts.

The Jockey Club stakes is a race to savour as Jack Hobbs (below) takes on Simple Verse. I always maintain a good colt will beat a good filly so side with Jack Hobbs but at 1/2 this is a race to savour rather than stake hour house on.

The Palace House stakes at 2.30 is a race renowned as a starting point for the top sprinters and this race is full of good older sprinters looking to position themselves for the best races of the year. The ground will not be quick enough for Sole Power and Waady has to prove he is as good elsewhere as he is at Sandown. Perhaps the speediest in the race is Cotai Glory, still lightly raced and housed in the stables that perhaps has the most quality in the sprinting division at present Charlie Hills this four year old could progress this year.

In the first take a chance on the thoroughly un-genuine Emerald. Marco Botti’s horse has a terrible head carriage but also a lot of talent. This is the scene of his only victory and the open spaces here probably suit.

Summary

3.45 Newmarket – Marcel – 1pt EW at 11/1

3.45 Newmarket – Buratino – 1pt EW at 18/1

2.30 Newmarket – Cotai Glory – 1pt EW at 10/1

2.00 Newmarket – Emerald – 1pt EW at 12/1

 

 

The Only Way is Essex

As Newbury disappears under the rising seas and biblical  rainstorms those lovely people of Essex have come to the rescue of tomorrow’s Classic Trials card and the whole card are travelling two by two with Nick Rust acting like a modern day Noah as the BHA’s quick thinking move the cards 120 miles to the sandy outpost of Chelmsford.

Some trainers are not happy and have decided to withdraw their competitors and some will be wishing they had gone to Newmarket earlier this week instead of waiting. But fair play to all involved for giving everyone the chance of a run on a decent surface ahead of some bigger prizes in a few weeks.

Chelmsford could be a Haggas bonanza and he has a great chance in each of the first three televised races. The first race confuses me as none of the runners look certain to stay the distance although if pressed the proven all weather form of Battalion would push his case to the top.

Willian Haggas

The two classic trials have had their complexion altered considerably for the switch and rather than looking for horses that would perhaps need further than the seven furlongs due to the heavy ground we could be looking for horses with speed to cope with the sound surface and turning track.

Although drawn wide in the Fred Darling  Besharah should be too good for his rivals and it will be disappointing if she does not win this. The draw could allow Pat Cosgrave to get cover and get her settled to stay the trip. I would have been happy with evens so the 11/8 on offer is a huge bonus.

Last year I was a huge fan of Tasleet and he seemed to improve with every race winning a competitive sales race and just being pipped in a Group 3. His main rival Log Out Island may not truly stay.

The Spring Mile is totally transformed and the highly progressive Godolphin runner Power Game can defy a slight rise in the weights and a step back down in trip to complete a four timer and a double at the track. PaddyPower are offering 13/8 whereas most firms are evens.

The banker of the day is Bristol de Mai. The Twiston-Davis grey has been on the go and contesting top races all season but if holding on to his form should be too classy for the rest of them especially on his favoured soft ground.

Now a couple of longer priced runners after selecting four favourites. In the Scottish Champion Hurdle our old friend and my favourite current racehorse Stenrubin. This free going battler is almost pattern race class and can bridge the gap between top handicaps and better races tomorrow.

Stenrubin

In the Scottish Grand National a Novice and an old stager. Seeyouatmidnight can keep the trophy at home. His front running and bold jumping is exciting to watch and he will be more t home on this ground than he was on the firmer conditions he encountered at Cheltenham. His young rider Steven Fox will have the ride of his short career and if passing the post first he will have the day of his life.

Summary

2.40 Chelmsford – Besharah – 1pt Win at 11/8

3.15 Chelmsford – Tasleet – 1pt Win at 11/10

3.50 Chelmsford – Power Game – 1pt Win at 13/8

2.25 Ayr – Bristol De Mai – 2pts Win at 11/10

3.00 Ayr – Stenrubin – 0.5pts Win at 10/1

4.10 Ayr – Seeyouatmidnight – 0.5pts Win at 18/1

Strong Foundations

On Thursday one of the top contenders for classic honours this year makes his seasonal debut in the Craven stakes and we will finally see if the Foundation(s) are sturdily made or will crumble in the April sunshine. Unluckily caught in a pocket in the Racing Post Trophy last backend when a fast finishing third.

He has frightened away a lot of the competition and will need to win with his head in his chest to make a huge impact on the guineas betting. My hope is that he wins well and that Air Force Blue lengthens slightly in the betting to make that one a viable betting option.

A chance could be taken on Maarek in the sprint against the more upwardly mobile Magical Memory and Baccarat. Unbeaten in his only visit to headquarters and ridden by Jamie Spencer whose style of riding suits. He made a good start to the year at Doncaster and usually improves for his first and will appreciate any cut in the ground and the uphill finish.

John Gosden has had a good start to the season and won the Nell Gwyn with his promising filly Nathra and he can follow that up in 3.20 tomorrow with Linguistic who can have his rivals all tongue tied. The competition is  headed by a horse from the O’Brien stable who looks slightly overrated on known form and a fellow Godolphin who won a weak race on the all-weather. Gosden nominated this colt as a horse to follow and he can prove his trainer right straight away.

I really fancied Long House Hall on Saturday at Aintree but I was as happy as Larry (see below) when he was pulled out due to the ground as he really needs a decent surface especially for his first time over three miles. Second in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham and only 3lb higher in the weights and 1lb below his Chase rating. I will be disappointed if he cannot take this.

Larry Hagman looking err Happy

 

Summary

4.10 Cheltenham – Long House Hall – 1pt Win at 3/1

3.20 Newmarket – Linguistic – 1pt Win at 4/1

3.55 Newmarket – Maarek – 0.5pts EW at 9/1

No Joshing Around

Tonight should see the crowning of a new British Heavyweight Champion. Think back to the days of Gary Mason and Frank Bruno when this seemed like a far fetched dream before Lennox Lewis, Tyson Fury and even Bruno himself made it feel almost commonplace.

Fury’s win over the long reigning Klitchsko set a benchmark for all the aspiring contenders and his subsequent relinquishing of the IBF belt has set this bout up.

The IBF requested that Fury fight the Vyacheslav Glazkov but when he refused opting instead for a rematch with Klitchsko,  Glazkov was offered the chance to fight for the belt against unbeaten but unheralded Charles Williams of America.

After two and half round of ‘pitter cake pitter cake bakers man’ the Ukranian suffered a knee injury that forced him to retire leaving Martin as the Champion by default. Many of the top contenders such as Luis Ortiz or David Haye would have loved to have gotten the chance to face Martin but hats off to Eddie Hearn for positioning Anthony Joshua at the head of the queue.

Glazkov’s knee gives way

Now you may think I am being harsh on a man that has won the world title and is undefeated in 24 fights and Martin does have some power something that 21 of his rivals will testify to but Martin does not have the look of a champ. His defence is poor, relying on his height to avoid punches, he slaps with a lot of his punches and his resume is filled with more bums of the month than a copy of the Readers Wives 1984 calender.

The same could be said of Joshua as he was tagged by Dillian Whyte in his last fight and his record is not a lot better but Joshua brings a lot of power and a top class amateur pedigree (Olympic Gold). If he can work out Martin’s southpaw stance over the initial couple of rounds I can envisage a stoppage before halfway. Take the 11/8 for a Joshua stoppage before the end of round four.

Ref gets slightly too close to the action

Over in America we see the rubber match between Manny Pacquiao and Timothy Bradley with the scores standing at one a piece at present. The legendary Filipino has not fought since his insipid display against Floyd Mayweather and has since had surgery on an injured shoulder. Bradley has since switched trainers and joined Teddy Atlas and performed fantastically against common for Brandon Rios last time.

This will without a doubt be a very close fight and may need to go to the judges again but the value has to lie with the younger man and Bradley could take this on points if needed.

Summary

Anthony Joshua vs Charles Martin – Joshua win Rounds 1 to 4 – 2pt Win at 11/8

Manny Pacquiao vs Tim Bradley – Bradkley Win – 1pt Win at 15/8

Lincoln Assassination

 

Lincoln day tomorrow and the ‘proper’ start of the flat part 2. The first was Ripon on Monday and the proper ‘proper’ one is Guineas day in May!

What used to an impossible race to fathom is now just a very hard race to  fathom due to a reduced field size.

Man of Harlech did us a favour in last year’s Cambridgeshire and he should be that bit stronger with another winter on his belt and he has had a few runs on the all weather. He is drawn near a lot of pace and should have the requisite stamina to be staying on at the death. The application of a hood last time helped him settle and it is re-applied today.

Keystroke in the first should appreciate the soft ground as a son of Pivotal and beat a very good all weather field last time on only his fourth start. The rough and tumble of that should have allowed him to grow up and he has a great each way chance tomorrow. He was a big fancy for the bif race itself and could gain some compensation here. Yourartisonfire has run well at this meeting the last two years and is too big at 33/1 to dismiss.

The first racehorse I ever rode was Vorvados winner of the 1984 Cammidge Trophy (below) and this year’s renewal could go to the in-form Mick Channon stable via Mobsta. Still lightly raced and possibly over the top when disappointing in his last run of the 2015 season. Soft ground and six furlongs is ideal.

 

In the 3.55 Belardo should make short work of this field in receipt of 7lb from Custom Cut. The 2014 Dewhurst winner loves a bit of cut and a straight mile and could be in for a very good year starting here.

Over the jumps at Newbury we strongly fancied Fingal Bay on better ground at Cheltenham but any hope was quashed by being hampered early on. A recovery mission today is on the cards.

Summary

2.15 Doncaster – Keystroke – 1pt EW at 7/1

2.15 Doncaster – Yourartisonfire – 0.5pts EW at 33/1

2.45 Doncaster – Man of Harlech – 1pt EW at 16/1

3.20 Doncaster – Mobsta – 0.5pts EW at 16/1

3.55 Doncaster – Belardo – 2pts Win at Evens

2.35 Newbury – Fingal Bay – 1pt Win at 11/4

Goodbye From Him

Please let me know if there is anything more annoying than those Gala Bingo adverts, what do you mean you don’t know? See below and tweet https://twitter.com/Racingahoy me how much you hate it!!

Anyway to cheer you up and make it worth it please get on Gala Ball in the 4.10 at Newbury tomorrow. A winner last time and the type to make a decent chaser next year he can defy a 10lb hike in the weights.

Another last time out winner, Roycano, can also cope with a weight rise. raised in trip last time he sauntered home and it will take a decent one to stop him completing the double.

To finish off the day in the last at Wolverhampton Mr Christopher will appreciate the drop back down in trip and can see off some very exposed rivals.

Finally it has been a sad start to the year with so many sad celebrity deaths but none have hit me as hard as the news today of Ronnie Corbett, So in tribute here is a video of him at his best.

Summary

3.00 Newbury – Roycano – 1pt Win at 3/1

4.10 Newbury – Gala Ball – 1pt Win at 9/4

8.45 Wolverhampton – Mr Christopher – 1pt Win at 11/4

Easter Sunday Tips

What a day of sport!

England come back from 2-0 against Germany, California Chrome proves his class in the Dubai World Cup and I have just witnessed a barnstormer of a fight between Chris Eubank jnr and Nick Blackwell and hopefully Blackwell recovers fully from a fight reminiscent of the victor’s fathers 80’s heyday fights.

Tomorrow is probably a little bit more low key but here are a few tips to earn us a few quid.

1.50 Sedgefield – Maxie T – 2pts Win at Evens

My only reservation is the inexperience of the rider but Maxie T is 7lbs better than his rivals. There is rain at Sedgefield and  the ground should ride softer than the forecasted good ground.

2.05 Wolverhampton – Jaarih – 1pt Win at 4/1

Jaarih should appreciate coming back down to five furlongs and is on a resonable mark. The favourite Point North is on a roll but has never won off the mark he runs off tomorrow and has failed repeatedly when raised to this level.

4.25 Wolverhampton – Rockwood – 1pt Win at 5/2

Priced up as a match between Moonday Sun and Rockwood but the former has never run a good race at Wolverhampton and the latter is on a roll and seems to do just enough enabling him to stay just ahead of the handicapper.